Driver Luck

Every qualified driver ranked by expected minus actual strokes gained per drive (xSG − SG). Positive means the player's ball flight earned more than the scorecard gave them — unlucky; negative means they gained more than they deserved — lucky. Luck Gap is how much higher they rank in expected SG than actual SG (percentile points).

#	Player⇅	Drives⇅	xSG/sh⇅	xSG %ile⇅	SG/sh⇅	SG %ile⇅	xSG − SG▼	Luck Gap⇅
1	Jackson Suber	179	+0.056	73	-0.073	6	+0.129	+67
2	Aaron Wise	60	+0.034	37	-0.093	3	+0.127	+34
3	Davis Riley	226	+0.001	9	-0.114	2	+0.115	+7
4	Henrik Norlander	54	-0.013	4	-0.111	2	+0.098	+2
5	Will Zalatoris	83	+0.059	75	-0.039	31	+0.098	+44
6	Luke Clanton	158	+0.026	27	-0.071	7	+0.097	+19
7	Garrick Higgo	284	+0.056	73	-0.041	30	+0.096	+43
8	Patton Kizzire	243	+0.008	12	-0.084	4	+0.092	+8
9	Karl Vilips	286	+0.029	32	-0.061	11	+0.090	+21
10	S.T. Lee	83	+0.036	43	-0.053	15	+0.089	+28
11	Joe Highsmith	360	+0.041	55	-0.047	20	+0.089	+35
12	David Ford	248	+0.075	91	-0.012	61	+0.087	+29
13	Andrew Putnam	298	+0.010	13	-0.076	5	+0.085	+7
14	Adam Schenk	318	+0.035	41	-0.050	17	+0.085	+24
15	Patrick Fishburn	161	+0.052	70	-0.033	37	+0.085	+33
16	Emilio Gonzalez	111	+0.013	14	-0.071	7	+0.084	+7
17	Tom Hoge	400	+0.032	35	-0.052	16	+0.083	+19
18	Kevin Yu	160	+0.052	70	-0.031	38	+0.083	+33
19	Kris Ventura	131	+0.086	98	+0.002	76	+0.083	+22
20	Alejandro Tosti	132	+0.036	42	-0.047	21	+0.082	+22
21	Rafael Campos	170	+0.036	44	-0.045	24	+0.081	+20
22	Steven Fisk	283	+0.044	58	-0.036	33	+0.080	+24
23	Brian Harman	372	+0.036	43	-0.043	25	+0.080	+18
24	Paul Waring	117	+0.061	77	-0.018	53	+0.079	+23
25	Kevin Streelman	147	+0.015	16	-0.065	9	+0.079	+7
26	Matt Wallace	247	+0.035	40	-0.041	29	+0.076	+11
27	Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	207	+0.062	77	-0.014	58	+0.075	+19
28	Webb Simpson	165	+0.014	15	-0.061	12	+0.075	+4
29	Thorbjørn Olesen	215	+0.055	72	-0.020	51	+0.075	+21
30	Emiliano Grillo	265	+0.038	50	-0.036	34	+0.074	+16
31	Hank Lebioda	237	+0.043	57	-0.031	39	+0.074	+19
32	Peter Malnati	193	-0.001	7	-0.075	6	+0.074	+2
33	Mark Hubbard	293	+0.032	34	-0.042	28	+0.074	+7
34	Danny Walker	289	+0.018	21	-0.055	14	+0.073	+6
35	Lanto Griffin	61	+0.050	65	-0.023	46	+0.073	+19
36	Keita Nakajima	140	+0.049	63	-0.024	45	+0.072	+18
37	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	298	+0.013	14	-0.059	13	+0.072	+2
38	Jordan Spieth	376	+0.050	65	-0.022	48	+0.072	+17
39	Rico Hoey	390	+0.056	74	-0.015	57	+0.072	+16
40	Tony Finau	393	+0.042	56	-0.030	40	+0.071	+16
41	John VanDerLaan	217	+0.067	85	-0.004	70	+0.071	+15
42	Jeffrey Kang	195	-0.009	5	-0.079	4	+0.071	+1
43	Michael Thorbjornsen	363	+0.083	96	+0.013	85	+0.070	+11
44	Zecheng Dou	284	+0.037	45	-0.034	36	+0.070	+9
45	Max Greyserman	178	+0.041	55	-0.030	40	+0.070	+14
46	Max Homa	283	+0.047	60	-0.023	47	+0.070	+14
47	Akshay Bhatia	244	+0.033	35	-0.037	33	+0.070	+3
48	David Lipsky	200	+0.020	22	-0.049	19	+0.069	+4
49	Isaiah Salinda	119	+0.092	100	+0.023	93	+0.069	+7
50	Viktor Hovland	290	+0.035	42	-0.034	35	+0.069	+6
51	Marcelo Rozo	157	+0.015	17	-0.054	15	+0.069	+2
52	Bronson Burgoon	64	+0.063	80	-0.005	69	+0.069	+11
53	Sam Ryder	205	+0.022	24	-0.046	22	+0.068	+2
54	Pontus Nyholm	202	+0.022	23	-0.046	22	+0.068	+2
55	Justin Thomas	210	+0.037	46	-0.031	38	+0.068	+8
56	Justin Lower	145	+0.026	28	-0.042	28	+0.068	-1
57	Erik van Rooyen	178	+0.049	64	-0.018	53	+0.068	+11
58	Tom Kim	369	+0.029	31	-0.039	31	+0.068	+0
59	Corey Conners	387	+0.064	81	-0.003	71	+0.068	+10
60	Matt McCarty	435	+0.045	59	-0.022	47	+0.067	+12
61	Chan Kim	80	+0.019	21	-0.048	20	+0.067	+2
62	Cam Davis	190	-0.023	3	-0.090	3	+0.066	-1
63	Jake Knapp	284	+0.072	89	+0.005	78	+0.066	+11
64	Adrien Dumont de Chassart	229	+0.049	64	-0.017	56	+0.066	+8
65	Kurt Kitayama	324	+0.070	87	+0.004	78	+0.066	+10
66	Ricky Castillo	321	+0.062	79	-0.003	72	+0.065	+7
67	Patrick Rodgers	492	+0.038	50	-0.027	42	+0.065	+7
68	Sami Valimaki	276	+0.024	25	-0.041	29	+0.065	-4
69	Taylor Moore	266	+0.066	82	+0.001	75	+0.065	+7
70	Xander Schauffele	273	+0.080	93	+0.015	87	+0.065	+6
71	Chandler Phillips	311	+0.026	27	-0.038	32	+0.064	-5
72	Carson Young	96	+0.019	22	-0.045	23	+0.064	-1
73	Matti Schmid	355	+0.042	56	-0.022	48	+0.064	+9
74	S.H. Kim	310	+0.051	68	-0.013	60	+0.064	+8
75	Stephan Jaeger	308	+0.034	36	-0.030	39	+0.064	-3
76	Rasmus Højgaard	217	+0.073	89	+0.009	83	+0.064	+7
77	Alex Noren	289	+0.028	31	-0.036	34	+0.064	-4
78	Cameron Young	319	+0.080	93	+0.016	88	+0.064	+5
79	Ben Griffin	389	+0.038	49	-0.025	43	+0.063	+5
80	Lee Hodges	258	+0.043	57	-0.020	52	+0.063	+5
81	Vince Whaley	239	+0.006	11	-0.057	13	+0.063	-3
82	Nick Dunlap	138	-0.062	1	-0.124	1	+0.062	+0
83	Denny McCarthy	438	+0.017	18	-0.045	23	+0.062	-5
84	Brooks Koepka	187	+0.068	87	+0.006	79	+0.062	+8
85	Ben Silverman	53	+0.037	46	-0.025	44	+0.061	+1
86	Seamus Power	278	+0.018	19	-0.043	25	+0.061	-6
87	Adam Svensson	137	+0.018	20	-0.043	27	+0.061	-7
88	John Parry	330	+0.041	53	-0.021	50	+0.061	+4
89	Eric Cole	365	-0.001	8	-0.061	11	+0.061	-3
90	Zach Bauchou	321	+0.013	15	-0.047	21	+0.060	-6
91	Joel Dahmen	220	+0.052	69	-0.008	68	+0.060	+2
92	Davis Thompson	276	+0.068	86	+0.008	82	+0.060	+4
93	Austin Smotherman	298	+0.051	68	-0.008	67	+0.059	+1
94	Brice Garnett	210	+0.003	10	-0.055	14	+0.059	-4
95	Kristoffer Reitan	329	+0.066	83	+0.007	81	+0.059	+2
96	Sahith Theegala	475	+0.037	48	-0.021	49	+0.058	-1
97	Zac Blair	74	+0.009	12	-0.050	18	+0.058	-5
98	J.T. Poston	349	+0.044	58	-0.014	59	+0.058	-1
99	Min Woo Lee	261	+0.081	95	+0.023	93	+0.058	+2
100	Sam Stevens	418	+0.075	91	+0.017	89	+0.058	+2
101	Taylor Pendrith	347	+0.071	88	+0.013	86	+0.058	+3
102	Robert MacIntyre	351	+0.078	92	+0.020	91	+0.058	+1
103	Beau Hossler	187	+0.014	16	-0.043	26	+0.058	-10
104	Jhonattan Vegas	294	+0.051	66	-0.007	69	+0.057	-3
105	K.H. Lee	69	-0.011	5	-0.067	9	+0.057	-4
106	A.J. Ewart	306	+0.023	24	-0.033	37	+0.056	-12
107	Hideki Matsuyama	362	+0.035	41	-0.021	49	+0.056	-8
108	Dylan Wu	217	+0.018	20	-0.038	32	+0.056	-12
109	Marco Penge	227	+0.067	85	+0.012	84	+0.056	+1
110	Mackenzie Hughes	285	+0.035	40	-0.021	50	+0.056	-10
111	Zach Johnson	76	-0.006	6	-0.061	12	+0.055	-6
112	Billy Horschel	433	+0.012	13	-0.044	24	+0.055	-11
113	Daniel Brown	220	+0.038	49	-0.017	55	+0.055	-6
114	Sam Burns	224	+0.084	96	+0.029	95	+0.055	+2
115	Jimmy Stanger	154	+0.065	82	+0.010	83	+0.055	-2
116	Kevin Roy	330	+0.051	67	-0.004	70	+0.055	-4
117	Aaron Rai	289	+0.028	30	-0.027	42	+0.055	-12
118	Wyndham Clark	333	+0.040	52	-0.015	58	+0.055	-6
119	Nicolai Hojgaard	250	+0.059	76	+0.004	77	+0.055	-2
120	Brian Campbell	293	-0.008	6	-0.062	10	+0.054	-4
121	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	396	+0.080	94	+0.025	94	+0.054	+0
122	Harry Hall	324	+0.027	29	-0.028	41	+0.054	-13
123	Adrien Saddier	245	+0.046	60	-0.008	67	+0.054	-7
124	Matthieu Pavon	309	+0.035	39	-0.019	52	+0.054	-14
125	Ludvig Aberg	318	+0.074	90	+0.020	92	+0.054	-2
126	Austin Eckroat	235	+0.031	34	-0.023	46	+0.054	-12
127	Ryan Gerard	407	+0.051	67	-0.003	73	+0.054	-5
128	Harris English	420	+0.062	78	+0.008	82	+0.053	-4
129	Charley Hoffman	126	+0.041	54	-0.012	62	+0.053	-8
130	Justin Rose	217	+0.050	66	-0.002	73	+0.053	-7
131	Neal Shipley	176	+0.083	95	+0.030	95	+0.052	+0
132	Rickie Fowler	377	+0.040	52	-0.013	60	+0.052	-8
133	Mac Meissner	348	+0.035	39	-0.017	55	+0.052	-15
134	Maverick McNealy	369	+0.059	75	+0.007	80	+0.052	-5
135	Christo Lamprecht	153	+0.054	71	+0.003	77	+0.051	-6
136	Brandt Snedeker	155	-0.018	3	-0.068	8	+0.051	-5
137	Tommy Fleetwood	323	+0.057	74	+0.007	80	+0.051	-6
138	Nico Echavarria	375	+0.016	18	-0.035	35	+0.050	-17
139	Jesper Svensson	118	+0.080	94	+0.030	96	+0.050	-2
140	Takumi Kanaya	264	+0.024	26	-0.026	43	+0.050	-17
141	Davis Chatfield	213	+0.000	9	-0.050	18	+0.050	-10
142	Keith Mitchell	405	+0.089	99	+0.040	98	+0.050	+1
143	Shane Lowry	307	+0.040	53	-0.009	64	+0.049	-11
144	Gordon Sargent	141	+0.063	80	+0.013	86	+0.049	-6
145	Sungjae Im	214	+0.047	61	-0.002	74	+0.049	-13
146	Ryo Hisatsune	464	+0.061	76	+0.012	85	+0.049	-9
147	William Mouw	285	+0.048	62	-0.001	75	+0.049	-12
148	Chris Gotterup	262	+0.084	97	+0.035	96	+0.049	+1
149	Chandler Blanchet	222	+0.037	47	-0.012	62	+0.049	-15
150	Nick Taylor	434	+0.024	25	-0.025	44	+0.049	-19
151	Haotong Li	238	+0.054	71	+0.006	79	+0.048	-8
152	Jordan Smith	337	+0.062	79	+0.014	87	+0.048	-7
153	Chris Kirk	284	+0.036	44	-0.011	63	+0.048	-19
154	Pierceson Coody	418	+0.066	84	+0.019	89	+0.048	-5
155	Blades Brown	86	+0.008	11	-0.039	30	+0.047	-19
156	Daniel Berger	334	+0.039	51	-0.008	66	+0.047	-15
157	Alex Smalley	387	+0.027	30	-0.020	51	+0.047	-22
158	Lucas Glover	264	+0.018	19	-0.029	41	+0.047	-22
159	Andrew Novak	347	+0.029	32	-0.018	54	+0.047	-22
160	Ryan Fox	240	+0.035	38	-0.013	61	+0.047	-23
161	Patrick Cantlay	313	+0.045	59	-0.002	74	+0.047	-14
162	Jacob Bridgeman	421	+0.048	62	+0.002	76	+0.046	-14
163	John Keefer	313	+0.085	97	+0.038	97	+0.046	+0
164	Adam Scott	328	+0.066	83	+0.020	91	+0.046	-8
165	Chad Ramey	339	+0.037	48	-0.009	65	+0.046	-17
166	Matt Fitzpatrick	333	+0.068	86	+0.021	92	+0.046	-6
167	Frankie Capan III	64	-0.109	1	-0.155	1	+0.045	+0
168	Danny Willett	84	-0.004	7	-0.049	19	+0.045	-12
169	Camilo Villegas	58	-0.034	2	-0.079	5	+0.044	-3
170	Michael Kim	427	+0.002	10	-0.042	27	+0.044	-18
171	Michael Brennan	253	+0.086	98	+0.042	98	+0.044	+0
172	Max McGreevy	351	+0.027	29	-0.016	56	+0.044	-27
173	Russell Henley	325	+0.035	38	-0.009	66	+0.043	-28
174	Aldrich Potgieter	213	+0.079	92	+0.036	97	+0.043	-5
175	Scottie Scheffler	326	+0.062	78	+0.019	90	+0.042	-12
176	Sepp Straka	327	+0.034	37	-0.007	68	+0.041	-31
177	Doug Ghim	218	+0.037	47	-0.003	71	+0.040	-24
178	Keegan Bradley	285	+0.026	28	-0.014	59	+0.040	-31
179	Si Woo Kim	380	+0.066	84	+0.027	94	+0.039	-11
180	Bud Cauley	403	+0.030	33	-0.009	64	+0.039	-30
181	Kensei Hirata	256	+0.029	33	-0.009	65	+0.039	-32
182	Kota Kaneko	51	-0.025	2	-0.063	10	+0.038	-7
183	Jason Day	236	+0.021	23	-0.016	57	+0.037	-34
184	J.J. Spaun	309	+0.048	61	+0.010	84	+0.037	-22
185	Collin Morikawa	247	+0.052	69	+0.017	88	+0.035	-20
186	Matt Kuchar	170	-0.017	4	-0.050	16	+0.033	-13
187	Rory McIlroy	196	+0.090	100	+0.060	100	+0.031	-1
188	Gary Woodland	274	+0.070	88	+0.044	99	+0.026	-11
189	Alex Fitzpatrick	55	+0.039	51	+0.051	100	-0.012	-48